Trumpublican Party: Their candidate will lose on Nov 3
Wikipedia Why I have more than a gut instinct the Trumpublican fire-tweeting dragon will be extinguished on Nov. 3 Many are contemplating a second term for Trumpublican President Donald J. Trump in the Oval Office. Perhaps they
Why I have more than a gut instinct the Trumpublican fire-tweeting dragon will be extinguished on Nov. 3
Many are contemplating a second term for Trumpublican President Donald J. Trump in the Oval Office. Perhaps they are paying more attention to his tweets and the garbage that emanates from his mouth than the very real political turnabout of events that began transpiring in mid-2019. Here is my scientific assessment based on a number of parameters:
There is political consternation in the Trumpublican Party. He will need major interference from Russia to win again. Several factors come to bear: He has lost support among his base in four big demographic sectors (women, farmers, coal miners, military), and generally in the Republican Party, demonstrated by Democrat wins in gubernatorial races in battleground states Kentucky, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, where voters even in mostly white, rural districts are motivated to vote out Republicans. Democrats triumped in races from Philadelphia and Scranton to the suburbs of Delaware and Chester Counties.
In Delaware County, a Republican stronghold since the Civil War, Democrats won all five local seats on the Delaware County Council, and also assumed a majority on the legislative body in Chester County. In Bucks County, Democrats captured the Board of Commissioners for the first time since 1983. This portends major trouble for Trump.
Outside Pennsylvania, voter unrest with President Donald Trump and the Republican Party helped deliver victories for Democrats in Kentucky, where they narrowly took the governorship; and Virginia, where they seized complete control of the state government for the first time in more than a quarter-century. And in Philadelphia, a third-party insurgent candidate weakened an already marginalized GOP by securing one of the at-large City Council seats Republicans have held for decades.
Other Red states in 2016 that show a moderate shift to Blue are Arizona, Texas, and Florida. Texas and Florida are two of the biggest-haul states with 38 electoral votes and 29, respectively. The Democrat nominee will likely win California and New York again (55 votes and 29); add Texas or Florida to that, it’s a done deal.
This is more than a Blue tsunami. There is a Blue surge deep in the groundwater of formerly Republican strongholds. People are weary of Trump’s shenanigans. Sure he has a base that largely remains intact, but remember he lost the majority vote in 2016 by three million and the only reason he lost three battleground states by 1 percentage point or less, is because Hillary Clinton did not campaign in the Rustbelt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — states Obama won in 2008 and 2012 — because she thought they were safely ensconced in her ballot coffers. That was a major blunder. As aforementioned, Trump took those states by the narrowest of margins, which pushed his EC count to a 273-point majority and the victory.
The Republican senate will not remove Trump from office, but the daily emphasis on his impeachment and the criminal revelations involving Russian collusion in his campaign, his embrace of Putin, blunders in the Middle East, his maligning of US military advisers (people generally embraced as American heroes) the bombshell revelations involving Rudy Guiliani, Lev Parnas, Mitch McConnell, and the downright constant lying, has severely damaged his populist brand.
The electorate did not know all of this dirty gunk was in his axle in 2016 — now, they do. It will take a major debacle by the Dems — whomever wins the nomination — between now and Nov. 3 for this tyrannical villain to win a second term. Remember, he was shocked he won in 2016. I don’t see it happening again.